Probability of a major earthquake (magnitude 7.0+) in the next 3 decades in the San Francisco area, they said a month later, was now raised from 67 to 90%.

No part of the world is totally immune from great earthquakes, as can be seen from a global map of earthquake occurrences. Most temblors are concentrated on the continental plate boundaries---the ring of fire around the Pacific Rim or the African Rift zone running from the heart of Africa through the Red Sea, Dead Sea and Jordan River Valley for example. At least a million earthquakes per year, large and small, release a total energy equivalent to nearly one billion tons of TNT.

Although this may seem to be a large amount of energy, heat flow from radioactive decay in the earth's crust is 1000 times greater. Energy released by earthquakes per year is only 10% of all energy used by man; heat from the sun which reaches the earth amounts to 5 million times more energy than is released in earthquakes.

There is no scientific evidence (as far as I know) that the number of earthquakes per year is increasing, contrary to the claims of some Bible prophecy teachers who seem to be misinterpreting passages in the Olivet Discourse of Jesus such as Matthew 24:7. There is more instrumentation to record earthquakes around the world in place today compared to former times, of course.

Increases in world population mean that the impact of earthquakes on people has become greater. (See Addendum).

Earthquakes are confined to the earth's crust. Most occur within 40 miles of the surface though a few extend ten times deeper. Stress accumulates gradually as the continental plates move and mountains shift and this is relieved periodically through gradual creep---or sudden jolts. Although some wish it were otherwise, California is not likely to drop off into the sea from a major earthquakes---the main faults move mostly sideways or at shallow angles, rather than vertically.

. Earthquake magnitudes are usually quote using the Richter Magnitude scale.* One unit on the Richter scale is a ten-fold amplitude increase in the earthquake vibrations, however this translates into a hundred-fold increase in energy released. A magnitude 4.5 quake releases typically the energy equivalent of 100 tons of TNT, a 5.5 quake, 10 kilotons, a 6.5 event, one megaton, and a 7.5 quake, of the order of 100 Mt.

Of course the degree of damage from an earthquake depends to a large degree on geological conditions, building construction standards, traffic conditions, duration of the shaking, and distance to the epicenter.

The Promised Land, in the providence of God, lies immediately adjacent to the African Rift Zone, the deepest known break in the earth's crust. A number of important quakes are mentioned in the Bible and many Holy Land earthquakes are known from secular history.

The destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah at the Southeastern s s of the Dead Sea in the time of Abraham about 1900 BC is vividly described in Genesis 19. Archaeological research suggests that a great earthquake opened the rift zone releasing brimstone (sulfur?) and volatile petroleum gases which caused a terrible firestorm.

Archaeological evidence suggests that the earthquake in the days of Uzziah king of Judah, and in the days of Jeroboam son of Joash king of Israel (Amos 1:1)---sometime between 749 to 760-may have had a magnitude greater than 7.0, possibly even 8.0 or higher.

Elijah experienced an earthquake at Mt. b (1 Kings 19:11) though he was not in Israel, but 300 miles South of Mt. Carmel in the Sinai wilderness at the time.

The fall of Jericho in 1400 BC was probably associated with a double earthquake. As the people of Israel crossed the Jordan River to enter the land under the leadership of Joshua, a earthquake-produced landslide at the town of Adam (15 miles to the North) probably dammed the Jordan. A short while later God conveniently seems to have arranged a second tremor, or an aftershock, at just the right time to topple Jericho's impregnable walls (Joshua 6).

Historically known quakes have dammed the Jordan River repeatedly, sometimes for several days---in 1160 AD, 1267, 1534, 1834, 1906 and 1927.

Qumran, where the Dead Sea scrolls were found, bears unmistakable evidence of major earthquake destruction in 31 BC during the reign of Herod the Great. Josephus records the death of 10,000 persons in that earthquake. Bet Shean, one of the major Roman cities known in the time of Jesus as the Decapolis, suffered major damage in 363 and in 749 AD.

Masada's buildings fell down not from warfare during the Jewish Uprising, but from an earthquake which came not long after the long Roman siege of 70-73 AD. That siege ended in the suicide deaths of 960 valiant Jewish zealots.

Jerusalem suffered a severe earthquake January 15, 1546: the Dome on the Church of the Holy Sepulcher was completely destroyed as were many other buildings. The Dome of the Rock was seriously damaged. Another major quake affecting the Holy City occurred in 1927-photos of churches and hospitals damaged at the time are still extant. The epicenter was in Nablus 30 miles North.

The magnitude of a number of earthquakes in Israel is fairly well known:

YEAR - Magnitude of Quake. 1927 AD - 6.4;1834 - 6.6; 1759 - 6.5; 1546 - 6.7; 1293 - 6.4; 1202 - 7.2; 1068 - 6.2; 1033 - 6.5; 749 - 6.6; 658 - 6.2; 363 - 7.0; 32 AD - ?; 31 BC - 6.4; 64 BC - ?

These known earthquakes have produced a total displacement of the Arabian and African Plates of the order of only 3 to 4 meters. Based on plate movements observed elsewhere around the world, 2000 years of history should have produced a displacement of about 14 meters. This is equivalent to 64 quakes of magnitude 6.8, or 16 of magnitude 7.3, or 4 of 7.7 or 1 of magnitude 8.0.